I'm not a politician or an analyst, but I wanted to share my point of view. I read BBC news and see nothing related to reality. However, FoxNews gave some adequate explanations, but I'm not sure they were heard. So, briefly, what's happening and why it's happening. Perhaps, at least my EU or US friends will read this. And as Russian citizen I'm not pretending to be objective.
- Politics has always been dirty and cinic. Peace is only possible when there is a balance of forces in the region or when one state suppresses all other. In later case peace is usually not stable (we can recollect Iraq or Serbia here - tragedies there were only possible because one state considered itself (and was) a super-power). Moreover, peace in Europe for 70 yeears was possible only because major competitors in the Cold War had nuclear weapons and so had to tolerate each other.
- A war is always terrible. Especially when it's a war with brother nation. And a lot of Russian people do have relatives and friends in Ukraine, so war with Ukraine is very painful for all sane Russians.
- But this is not a war against Ukraine, although Ukraine suffers most from this war. It's a conflict with USA, NATO and EU.
- This conflict has begun not on 24th or 21st of February, and even not in 2014. It began in 2008, when NATO targeted at incorporating Georgia and Ukraine.
- Ukraine has chosen a side in this conflict not in 2022, but in 2013, when legal pro-Russian government was deposed. Pro-western government was established. Likely this government was popular that days. A course for EU integration and collaboration with NATO was chosen.
- Russia, seeing this as a threat, secured Sebastopol Naval base by annexing Crimea (and local people appreciated this). The second action was to support separatists in Donbass. They were Russians, and we protected them, and this weakened now pro-western Ukraine. If you want to know more about how Ukraine treated them, you can look at the document linked below.
- During last 6-7 years Russia has made attempts to arrange an agreement with US (and NATO) on the Ukranian crisis. Minsk agreements were signed in 2015, but were not respected by Ukraine or its partners.
- Escalation of this crisis has begun in 2021. Not sure why. Likely during this period NATO started to ship war drones to Ukraine (besides other weapon). This made our government concerned. And instead of negotiations, we got several provocations - like UK warship in our waters. What would happened if our border guards flooded it? Don't want to consider. But the one sending it there was likely mad.
- Presence of NATO forces in Georgia and Ukraine is considered an existencial threat for Russia. And our government has shown that it's ready to military actions if this possibility becomes more real in 2008 during crisis in Georgia.
- NATO declares that Ukraine is not considered as a possible NATO member. But current world-wide support contradicts this. Ukraine de-facto is treated as NATO member.
- It's clear that both sides (USA and Russia) have been preparing for this conflict for long (it seems to me, since last December).
- The last straw (it appears) was the declaration of Ukraine president that his country will leave Budapest Memorandum. Besides all, Budapest Memorandum forbids Ukraine to have nuclear weapon.
Everyone can see what happened next. But don't consider that this war has begun in February. Everything is much deeper and harder. Absence of good will from NATO (and first of all, from USA) and irresponsible behavior of Ukranian government has lead to situation which could be avoided. In Russia we like to blame Stalin that he didn't prepare for the WWII. So, for Russian people this is the 21st June. A strike back just a day (or, likely, a decade) before NATO strike. This is not a liberation of Ukraine, but a war for safety of our borders. So in this situation we will not listen for calls for peace until Ukraine will not be a threat for Russia. Again, by no means, this is not a war against Ukranian people. This is a war agains their anti-russian elite and government. This is a war for peace near our borders. And as most Russian people see current Ukranian government an immediate threat to Russia, this war will continue until it reaches its objectives - destruction of nationalists in Ukraine. Once again, we didn't want to bring war to Ukranian civilians. It's a tragedy that they are suffering. It's a tragedy to see Ukranian cities damaged. I'm sure we'll win soon. But the sooner West stops supporting the current Ukraine government, the sooner peace will come to that land. And I hope, when everything ends, we'll help Ukranians to reconstruct their cities. But this will not ressurect dead.
For people, who want more context, I'm attaching a Russian Foreign ministry brochure - what was happening for 8 years in Ukraine and what Western countries didn't want to listen about.
